Kathmandu-The National Statistics Office has already estimated Nepal’s economic growth at 3 percent in the first quarter of the current fiscal year. This estimate is based on data on economic activity from mid-July to mid-October.

Despite widespread expectations that the economy could experience a sharp slowdown due to the damage caused during the GenZ movement on September 8 and 9, the office has projected that first-quarter growth will follow a normal trend.

In the immediate aftermath of the unrest, agencies like the World Bank and Fitch Ratings predicted that Nepal’s economic growth could remain weak or even turn negative. However, Finance Minister Rameshwar Khanal has consistently rejected these estimates, asserting that growth will not be as pessimistic as projected by external agencies.

The statistics office has estimated that output in all sectors will increase compared to the same quarter of the previous year.

The energy and gas sector is projected to grow by 14.9 percent, while financial intermediation is expected to grow by 7 percent. Growth in real estate and related sectors is also anticipated to be above 5 percent.

The first-quarter growth rate of the current fiscal year falls within the average range. Typically, first-quarter growth is not very high. In the first quarter of last year, growth was 2.9 percent, and the same rate was recorded in the year before that.

Apart from the base effect, where growth appears higher compared to quarters with negative or very low growth, the pattern has remained consistent.

Officials believe that growth may slow somewhat in the second quarter but will strengthen in the third and fourth quarters.

Elections will be held in the third quarter, and in the final quarter of the year, large lump sum payments are usually made, which supports consumption growth. Continued growth in imports in recent months is also expected to boost consumption and support growth in the trade sector.